UCL Betting Tips: Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
Atlético Madrid, under the ever-pragmatic Diego Simeone, welcome Borussia Dortmund to the Wanda Metropolitano for the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie. Both teams had their fair share of drama in the round of 16. Atlético staged a dramatic comeback to defeat Inter Milan on penalties, while Dortmund survived several late scares against PSV Eindhoven to reach this stage for the first time since 2021.
However, the Germans might be nearing the end of their European adventure this season. A significant hurdle awaits them in this first leg, primarily due to Atlético’s remarkable home record in Champions League knock-out ties, which could make it very challenging for Dortmund to leave with a favourable result.
Under Simeone, Atlético are unbeaten in 16 Champions League knock-out games at home. Even more impressively, Atlético only conceded four times in those matches, further emphasising the immense challenge facing Dortmund on Wednesday.
Borussia Dortmund: Struggles on the Road
Borussia Dortmund will be desperate to make the most of this opportunity, with a return to the Champions League next season far from certain given their current fifth-place standing in the Bundesliga.
However, their well-documented defensive problems and away form in the Champions League might prove their undoing. The Blacks and Yellows have the eighth-best expected goals against (xGA) in Germany this year, and only the elite shot-stopping of Swiss keeper Gregor Kobel has prevented them from conceding more. Kobel’s heroics mean Dortmund have allowed just 33 goals from 43 xGA, with the Swiss saving more goals over expected than any other player in the Bundesliga.
The team has also allowed 110 shots from set pieces, the ninth-most in Germany. This could prove problematic, especially against a team like Atletico, who thrive on precisely such situations. Furthermore, Dortmund’s defence has struggled in the Champions League as well. Their away trips in the group stage to PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle saw them average 1.9 expected goals allowed per match.
Dortmund’s goal will likely endure a charmed life at the Wanda, and much will depend on their goalkeeper continuing his stellar form. While Kobel has been exceptional for Dortmund, his heroics might not be enough to keep out an Atlético side that know how to win at this stage, especially at home.
Betting Tip: Atlético to Win
10/04 20:00 Atlético Madrid – Borussia Dortmund Atlético to win @ 1.82 (Betano)
Considering the weight of history, Atlético’s impregnability at home, and Dortmund’s struggles on the road, our betting tip is Atletico Madrid to win. Here’s why this bet holds value:
- Atlético’s Unbeaten Home Record: Atlético Madrid have not lost a knock-out stage game at home under Diego Simeone, a record they’ll be keen to maintain.
- Defensive Stalwarts: Atlético’s miserly defence, conceding only four goals in their last 16 knock-out home games in the competition, will make it incredibly difficult for Dortmund to break through.
- Dortmund’s Defensive Struggles: Dortmund have struggled defensively, both domestically and in the Champions League, especially away from home. Their high xGA and the number of shots allowed from set pieces highlight these issues.
With a favourable home record, a resolute defence, and Dortmund’s travel woes, Atlético Madrid are poised to take control of this first-leg encounter.
At 1.82 odds on Betano, this bet offers excellent value. Even better, Betano’s “2 Goals Ahead” early payout feature means you win this bet if Atlético take a two-goal lead anytime in the match, regardless of the final score!
With Dortmund’s very high expected goals allowed (xGA) in Champions League away games, taking this bet is a no-brainer!
Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund - Atlético to win @ 1.82
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